This policy brief presents four research contributions related to the socio-economic and bio-physical impacts of climate change. 

The first research line explores the impact of climate change on renewable energy generation and stability across Europe. Reliance on variable renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydropower presents new challenges due to weather variability and long-term climate changes. 

To address these, the study developed a comprehensive, open-source dataset of historical and projected meteorological data. The data show significant spatial and temporal fluctuations in renewable energy potential, driven by shifting climate patterns. This calls for adaptive power systems that include flexible energy policies, investment in energy storage, grid interconnectivity, and enhanced demand-side management. 

Policy recommendations include diversifying renewable energy sources by region, adopting energy efficiency standards, and investing in robust, climate-resilient infrastructure. These steps are essential in securing Europe’s energy future and achieving decarbonization goals. 

The second research line examines whether the climate policies that seek to ensure that temperature overshoot is avoided can generate co-benefits resulting from mitigated air pollution. 

It starts by providing background information with respect to the emergence of air pollution as a phenomenon jeopardizing public health and economics. It discusses the methodology that has been utilized and presents the results that have been obtained in terms of health and economic co-benefits: the adoption of the net zero scenario design would result in the consistent obtainment of health and economic co-benefits in all countries in 2030. China and India would emerge as the countries that would avoid the greatest amount of damages.

 The third research line how urban compactness impacts carbon emissions from transportation in Italian cities, providing insights for environmental policy and urban planning. As global urban populations grow, research into the spatial organization of cities is crucial for understanding emissions from transport networks influenced by distances, traffic, and public transport accessibility. 

Using data on Italian urban centers—including variables such as population, GDP, climate, and specific indicators of urban form (compactness, range, and sprawl)—the study establishes a negative correlation between compact city structures and per capita emissions. 

This correlation aligns with findings from international studies, suggesting that compact urban GRINS – Growing Resilient, Inclusive and Sustainable “9. Economic and financial sustainability of systems and territories” Codice identificativo: PE00000018 environments support lower emissions due to shorter travel distances and higher population density. 

Policy implications emphasize the benefits of compact city planning, including enhanced energy efficiency and reduced GHG emissions, while also highlighting the need for policies that address potential downsides of compactness, such as air pollution and overcrowding. 

The fourth research line investigates the role of local public transport (LPT), specifically rail services, in reducing air pollution, focusing on a natural experiment following a train accident in Florence, Italy, in April 2023. 

The accident disrupted rail services for four days, compelling commuters to switch to private vehicles and resulting in measurable increases in NOx levels. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, the research compared air quality data from 38 monitoring stations in Tuscany, with 12 stations in affected areas (treatment group) and 26 in unaffected areas (control group). 

Findings show a significant short-term rise in pollution in areas impacted by rail disruptions, with NO2 and NO levels rising by 36% and 47% respectively, particularly during peak commuting hours. The study highlights LPT’s role in mitigating pollution and emphasizes the need for policies that encourage a shift from private vehicles to public transport to meet EU air quality and emissions goals.