Output
Real time monitoring and forecasting of key macroeconomic and financial indicators, including probabilistic vulnerability indicators
This report provides up-to-date projections and risk assessments of short- to medium-term macroeconomic and fiscal indicators of the Italian economy. We consider not only point and density forecasts but also assess tail risks to macroeconomic and fiscal variables. In this report, we focus on nowcasts and forecasts up to three years ahead for real GDP growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio, the deficit-to-GDP ratio, the unemployment rate, and inflation.
CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
Baltodano López, O., Billio, M., Casarin, R. and Costola, M., Energy Economics, 149, 2025
CC BY
Casarin, R., Radu, C., Wang, Q., Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 208, 105427, 2025
Giuseppe Cavaliere, Luca Fanelli and Marco Mazzali. Department of Economics, University of Bologna
A policy brief by Andrea Consiglio, professor of Mathematical Finance at University Of Palermo.
A report for the activities of Spoke 4, WP 4.4, prepared by Università Ca' Foscari Venezia and the contribution of Roberto Casarin and Ovielt Baltodano López.
Report attività Spoke 4 - Monica Billio - 19,20 febbraio, Bologna
CC BY 4.0
Marcellino, M. and Tornese, T., Economics Letters, 257, 2025
CC BY 4.0
Marcellino, M. and Pfarrhofer, M., Economics Letters, 255, 2025
Massimiliano Marcellino (Bocconi University), and Michael Pfarrhofer (WU Vienna)
University of Bologna: Silvia Romagnoli, Amia Santini
A policy brief by Andrea Consiglio, professor of Mathematical Finance at University Of Palermo.
S. Ajovalasit (University of Palermo), A. Consiglio (University of Palermo), G.Pagliardi (Durham University, UK; University of Cyprus), S.A. Zenios (Cyprus Academy of Sciences, Letters, and Arts, CY; Bruegel, BE)
Cavaliere, G., Fanelli, L., and Mazzali, M.
Giuseppe Cavaliere, Luca Fanelli and Marco Mazzali, Department of Economics, University of Bologna
Università Bocconi: Massimiliano Marcellino, Maximilian Boeck, Michael Pfarrhofer, and Tommaso Tornese.
CC BY 4.0
Damiano, R., Polizzi, S., Scannella, E., & Valenza, G., Business Ethics, the Environment & Responsibility, 2025
Roberto Casarin, Ovielt Baltodano López, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia
CC BY
Samantha Ajovalasit, Andrea Consiglio, Davide Provenzano. Risks, Volume 12, article number 12, 2024.
Predicting Tail-Risks for the Italian Economy
M.Boeck. M.Marcellino. M.Pfarrhoffer, T.Tornese, Università Bocconi, WU Vienna
CC BY 4.0
Alberola, E., Cheng, G., Consiglio, A. et al., Annals of Operations Research, 2025
Massimiliano Marcellino (Bocconi University), and Michael Pfarrhofer (WU Vienna)
Baltodano Lopez, O., Bassetti, F., Carallo, G. and Casarin, R., Econometrics and Statistics, in press
A policy brief on debt sustainability and financial stability also under compound risk.
CC BY
Bernardi, M., Casarin, R., Petrella, L., Maillet, B. Annals of Operations Research.
CC BY
Ahelegbey D.F., Casarin R., Fianu E.S., Grossi L., Annals of Operation Research 2024
Fondazione GRINS
Growing Resilient,
Inclusive and Sustainable
Galleria Ugo Bassi 1, 40121, Bologna, IT
C.F/P.IVA 91451720378
Finanziato dal Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), Missione 4 (Infrastruttura e ricerca), Componente 2 (Dalla Ricerca all’Impresa), Investimento 1.3 (Partnership Estese), Tematica 9 (Sostenibilità economica e finanziaria di sistemi e territori).
